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1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways

1.5  °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community...

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Autores principales: Keyßer, Lorenz T., Lenzen, Manfred
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8113441/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33976156
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9
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author Keyßer, Lorenz T.
Lenzen, Manfred
author_facet Keyßer, Lorenz T.
Lenzen, Manfred
author_sort Keyßer, Lorenz T.
collection PubMed
description 1.5  °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5  °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered.
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spelling pubmed-81134412021-05-14 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways Keyßer, Lorenz T. Lenzen, Manfred Nat Commun Article 1.5  °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5  °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-05-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8113441/ /pubmed/33976156 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Keyßer, Lorenz T.
Lenzen, Manfred
1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
title 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
title_full 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
title_fullStr 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
title_full_unstemmed 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
title_short 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
title_sort 1.5 °c degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8113441/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33976156
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22884-9
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