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Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil
After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8113494/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33976183 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22921-7 |
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author | Brito, Anderson Fernandes Machado, Lais Ceschini Oidtman, Rachel J. Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima Tran, Quan Minh Fauver, Joseph R. Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro de Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Kalinich, Chaney C. Petrone, Mary E. Allen, Emma España, Guido Camargo Huang, Angkana T. Cummings, Derek A. T. Baele, Guy Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira da Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Perkins, T. Alex Wallau, Gabriel Luz Grubaugh, Nathan D. |
author_facet | Brito, Anderson Fernandes Machado, Lais Ceschini Oidtman, Rachel J. Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima Tran, Quan Minh Fauver, Joseph R. Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro de Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Kalinich, Chaney C. Petrone, Mary E. Allen, Emma España, Guido Camargo Huang, Angkana T. Cummings, Derek A. T. Baele, Guy Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira da Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Perkins, T. Alex Wallau, Gabriel Luz Grubaugh, Nathan D. |
author_sort | Brito, Anderson Fernandes |
collection | PubMed |
description | After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8113494 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-81134942021-05-14 Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil Brito, Anderson Fernandes Machado, Lais Ceschini Oidtman, Rachel J. Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima Tran, Quan Minh Fauver, Joseph R. Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro de Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Kalinich, Chaney C. Petrone, Mary E. Allen, Emma España, Guido Camargo Huang, Angkana T. Cummings, Derek A. T. Baele, Guy Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira da Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Perkins, T. Alex Wallau, Gabriel Luz Grubaugh, Nathan D. Nat Commun Article After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million cases. In this study we use epidemiological, climatological and genomic data to investigate dengue dynamics in recent years in Brazil. First, we estimate dengue virus force of infection (FOI) and model mosquito-borne transmission suitability since the early 2000s. Our estimates reveal that DENV transmission was low in 2017–2018, despite conditions being suitable for viral spread. Our study also shows a marked decline in dengue susceptibility between 2002 and 2019, which could explain the synchronous decline of dengue in the country, partially as a result of protective immunity from prior ZIKV and/or DENV infections. Furthermore, we performed phylogeographic analyses using 69 newly sequenced genomes of dengue virus serotype 1 and 2 from Brazil, and found that the outbreaks in 2018–2019 were caused by local DENV lineages that persisted for 5–10 years, circulating cryptically before and after the Zika epidemic. We hypothesize that DENV lineages may circulate at low transmission levels for many years, until local conditions are suitable for higher transmission, when they cause major outbreaks. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-05-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8113494/ /pubmed/33976183 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22921-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Brito, Anderson Fernandes Machado, Lais Ceschini Oidtman, Rachel J. Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima Tran, Quan Minh Fauver, Joseph R. Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro de Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi Kalinich, Chaney C. Petrone, Mary E. Allen, Emma España, Guido Camargo Huang, Angkana T. Cummings, Derek A. T. Baele, Guy Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira da Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes Perkins, T. Alex Wallau, Gabriel Luz Grubaugh, Nathan D. Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil |
title | Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil |
title_full | Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil |
title_fullStr | Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil |
title_full_unstemmed | Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil |
title_short | Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil |
title_sort | lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the zika epidemic in brazil |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8113494/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33976183 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22921-7 |
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