Risk trade-off analysis of returning home and radiation exposure after a nuclear disaster using a happy life expectancy indicator

It is crucial to evaluate ethical issues regarding evacuation orders, especially after a nuclear disaster. After the Fukushima accident in 2011, the Japanese government ordered the affected people to evacuate. The evacuation orders have now been lifted in many areas. A risk trade-off analysis between benefits and risk associated with returning home would help in evaluating the justification for the lifting of the evacuation order in the aftermath of a nuclear disaster. Here, we performed a risk trade-off analysis among people returning home after the lifting of an evacuation order between an increase in emotional happiness (positive effect) and loss of life expectancy due to additional radiation exposure (negative effect), using a happy life expectancy (HpLE) indicator. Emotional happiness was estimated using questionnaires distributed among the affected people who lived in municipalities where evacuation orders were lifted. Loss of life expectancy was estimated under a scenario that returnees received 20 mSv in the year of return and subsequent radiation exposure. Increase in emotional happiness due to returning home was ~1–2 orders of magnitude higher among women aged 20, 40 and 65 years than the loss of life expectancy due to additional radiation exposure. This finding has implications for the justification for the lifting of evacuation orders.