Communicating with residents about 10 years of scientific progress in understanding thyroid cancer risk in children after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident

After the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) accident in 2011, radiation-related risk of childhood thyroid cancer remains a matter of concern among residents living in areas affected by radioactive plumes. As a countermeasure to that, the Fukushima Prefectural Government—in conjunction with Fukushima Medical University—began the Fukushima Thyroid Examination (FTE) campaign in 2011. As 116 definite or suspected thyroid cancer cases were found after the first round of FTE and the total number of cases was >240 as of June 2020, residents’ concerns have deepened. Some researchers claim that these cases are radiation-induced, while others claim a screening effect (because FTE uses high-resolution ultrasound equipment) and express concern about over-diagnosis. Researchers therefore must address two conflicting issues: one is to elucidate radiation effects on thyroid cancer, which requires continuation of FTE; the other is to solve ethical problems associated with FTE. As to over-diagnosis, surgeons claim that early diagnosis benefits children by reducing the side-effects of treatment and prolonging disease-free survival, while cancer epidemiologists claim that early diagnosis will result in overtreatment without reducing the death rate. ‘To receive FTE or not’ and ‘to stop FTE or not’ are ongoing dilemmas for children (and their parents) and other stakeholders, respectively. To facilitate building a consensus among stakeholders, I overview recent findings about dose reconstruction, the dose–response relationship of thyroid cancer, over-diagnosis, and the natural history of thyroid cancer, all of which contribute to judging the risk–benefit balance of thyroid screening.