Cargando…

Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO

In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Feng, Xingru, Li, Mingjie, Li, Yuanlong, Yu, Fujiang, Yang, Dezhou, Gao, Guandong, Xu, Lingjing, Yin, Baoshu
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8115035/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33980930
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89507-7
_version_ 1783691163918663680
author Feng, Xingru
Li, Mingjie
Li, Yuanlong
Yu, Fujiang
Yang, Dezhou
Gao, Guandong
Xu, Lingjing
Yin, Baoshu
author_facet Feng, Xingru
Li, Mingjie
Li, Yuanlong
Yu, Fujiang
Yang, Dezhou
Gao, Guandong
Xu, Lingjing
Yin, Baoshu
author_sort Feng, Xingru
collection PubMed
description In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8115035
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Nature Publishing Group UK
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-81150352021-05-12 Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO Feng, Xingru Li, Mingjie Li, Yuanlong Yu, Fujiang Yang, Dezhou Gao, Guandong Xu, Lingjing Yin, Baoshu Sci Rep Article In the past decade (2010–2019), the annual maximum typhoon storm surge (AMTSS) accounted for 46.6% of the total direct economic loss caused by marine disasters in Chinese mainland, but its prediction in advance is challenging. By analyzing records of 23 tide-gauge stations, we found that the AMTSSs in Shanghai, Zhejiang and Fujian show significant positive correlations with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For the 1987–2016 period, the maximum correlation is achieved at Pingtan station, where correlation coefficient between the AMTSS and Niño-3.4 is 0.55. The AMTSS occurring in El Niño years are stronger than those in non-El Niño years by 9–35 cm in these areas. Further analysis suggests that a developing El Niño can greatly modulate the behaviors of Northwest Pacific typhoons. Strong typhoons tend to make landfall in southeast China with stronger intensities and northward shifted landfall positions. This study indicates that the modulation effect by ENSO may provide potential predictability for the AMTSS, which is useful for the early alert and reduction of storm surge damages. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-05-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8115035/ /pubmed/33980930 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89507-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Feng, Xingru
Li, Mingjie
Li, Yuanlong
Yu, Fujiang
Yang, Dezhou
Gao, Guandong
Xu, Lingjing
Yin, Baoshu
Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_full Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_fullStr Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_full_unstemmed Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_short Typhoon storm surge in the southeast Chinese mainland modulated by ENSO
title_sort typhoon storm surge in the southeast chinese mainland modulated by enso
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8115035/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33980930
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89507-7
work_keys_str_mv AT fengxingru typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT limingjie typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT liyuanlong typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT yufujiang typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT yangdezhou typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT gaoguandong typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT xulingjing typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso
AT yinbaoshu typhoonstormsurgeinthesoutheastchinesemainlandmodulatedbyenso