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The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections

Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text] ). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappe...

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Autores principales: Mari, Lorenzo, Casagrandi, Renato, Bertuzzo, Enrico, Pasetto, Damiano, Miccoli, Stefano, Rinaldo, Andrea, Gatto, Marino
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8115165/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33980858
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22878-7
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author Mari, Lorenzo
Casagrandi, Renato
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Pasetto, Damiano
Miccoli, Stefano
Rinaldo, Andrea
Gatto, Marino
author_facet Mari, Lorenzo
Casagrandi, Renato
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Pasetto, Damiano
Miccoli, Stefano
Rinaldo, Andrea
Gatto, Marino
author_sort Mari, Lorenzo
collection PubMed
description Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text] ). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappearance, based on generalized reactivity analysis. They identify conditions for perturbations to a stable disease-free equilibrium ([Formula: see text] ) to grow, possibly causing significant damage. Here, we introduce the epidemicity index e(0), a threshold-type indicator: if e(0) > 0, initial foci may cause infection peaks even if [Formula: see text] . Therefore, effective containment measures should achieve a negative epidemicity index. We use spatially explicit models to rank containment measures for projected evolutions of the ongoing pandemic in Italy. There, we show that, while the effective reproduction number was below one for a sizable timespan, epidemicity remained positive, allowing recurrent infection flare-ups well before the major epidemic rebounding observed in the fall.
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spelling pubmed-81151652021-05-14 The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections Mari, Lorenzo Casagrandi, Renato Bertuzzo, Enrico Pasetto, Damiano Miccoli, Stefano Rinaldo, Andrea Gatto, Marino Nat Commun Article Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text] ). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappearance, based on generalized reactivity analysis. They identify conditions for perturbations to a stable disease-free equilibrium ([Formula: see text] ) to grow, possibly causing significant damage. Here, we introduce the epidemicity index e(0), a threshold-type indicator: if e(0) > 0, initial foci may cause infection peaks even if [Formula: see text] . Therefore, effective containment measures should achieve a negative epidemicity index. We use spatially explicit models to rank containment measures for projected evolutions of the ongoing pandemic in Italy. There, we show that, while the effective reproduction number was below one for a sizable timespan, epidemicity remained positive, allowing recurrent infection flare-ups well before the major epidemic rebounding observed in the fall. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-05-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8115165/ /pubmed/33980858 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22878-7 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Mari, Lorenzo
Casagrandi, Renato
Bertuzzo, Enrico
Pasetto, Damiano
Miccoli, Stefano
Rinaldo, Andrea
Gatto, Marino
The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
title The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
title_full The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
title_fullStr The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
title_full_unstemmed The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
title_short The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections
title_sort epidemicity index of recurrent sars-cov-2 infections
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8115165/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33980858
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22878-7
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