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Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity

Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics...

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Autores principales: Chiang, Felicia, Mazdiyasni, Omid, AghaKouchak, Amir
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8115225/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33980822
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w
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author Chiang, Felicia
Mazdiyasni, Omid
AghaKouchak, Amir
author_facet Chiang, Felicia
Mazdiyasni, Omid
AghaKouchak, Amir
author_sort Chiang, Felicia
collection PubMed
description Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics. Using SPI and SPEI indices generated from an ensemble of 9 CMIP6 models (using 3 realizations per model), we show that the presence of anthropogenic forcing has increased the drought frequency, maximum drought duration, and maximum drought intensity experienced in large parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Using individual greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcings, we also highlight that regional balances between the two major forcings have contributed to the drying patterns detected in our results. Overall, we provide a comprehensive characterization of the influence of anthropogenic forcing on drought characteristics, providing important perspectives on the role of forcings in driving changes in drought events.
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spelling pubmed-81152252021-05-14 Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity Chiang, Felicia Mazdiyasni, Omid AghaKouchak, Amir Nat Commun Article Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature or precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological drought characteristics. Using SPI and SPEI indices generated from an ensemble of 9 CMIP6 models (using 3 realizations per model), we show that the presence of anthropogenic forcing has increased the drought frequency, maximum drought duration, and maximum drought intensity experienced in large parts of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Using individual greenhouse gas and anthropogenic aerosol forcings, we also highlight that regional balances between the two major forcings have contributed to the drying patterns detected in our results. Overall, we provide a comprehensive characterization of the influence of anthropogenic forcing on drought characteristics, providing important perspectives on the role of forcings in driving changes in drought events. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-05-12 /pmc/articles/PMC8115225/ /pubmed/33980822 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Chiang, Felicia
Mazdiyasni, Omid
AghaKouchak, Amir
Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
title Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
title_full Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
title_fullStr Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
title_full_unstemmed Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
title_short Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
title_sort evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8115225/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33980822
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22314-w
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