Outdoor life in dementia: How predictable are people with dementia in their mobility?

INTRODUCTION: People with dementia (PWD) often become disoriented, which increases their risk of getting lost. This article explores the extent to which we can predict future whereabouts of PWD by learning from their past mobility patterns using Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking devices. METHODS: Seven older adults with dementia and eight healthy older adults completed 8 weeks of GPS data collection. We computed the probability that an appropriate algorithm can correctly predict the participant's future destinations using spatial and temporal patterns in each participant's GPS trajectories. RESULTS: Relying on both spatial and temporal patterns, our results suggest that a 4‐week record of mobility patterns displays 95% potential predictability across the dementia group, which is significantly higher than 92% potential predictability among the controls, t(13) = –3.39, P < .01, d = –1.75. That is, we can hope to be able to predict destinations of PWD about 95% of the time and destinations of controls about 92% of the time. DISCUSSIONS: Our findings on predictability of mobility patterns among PWD offer new perspectives on predictive mobility models that can be used to locate missing persons with dementia.