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Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China

Background: During the epidemic, surgeons cannot identify infectious acute abdomen patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immediately using the current widely applied methods, such as double nucleic acid detection. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model, presented a...

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Autores principales: Zhao, Bangbo, Wei, Yingxin, Sun, Wenwu, Qin, Cheng, Zhou, Xingtong, Wang, Zihao, Li, Tianhao, Cao, Hongtao, Wang, Yujun, Wang, Weibin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8119634/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33996842
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.601941
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author Zhao, Bangbo
Wei, Yingxin
Sun, Wenwu
Qin, Cheng
Zhou, Xingtong
Wang, Zihao
Li, Tianhao
Cao, Hongtao
Wang, Yujun
Wang, Weibin
author_facet Zhao, Bangbo
Wei, Yingxin
Sun, Wenwu
Qin, Cheng
Zhou, Xingtong
Wang, Zihao
Li, Tianhao
Cao, Hongtao
Wang, Yujun
Wang, Weibin
author_sort Zhao, Bangbo
collection PubMed
description Background: During the epidemic, surgeons cannot identify infectious acute abdomen patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immediately using the current widely applied methods, such as double nucleic acid detection. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model, presented as a nomogram and scale, to identify infectious acute abdomen patients with suspected COVID-19 more effectively and efficiently. Methods: A total of 584 COVID-19 patients and 238 infectious acute abdomen patients were enrolled. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to develop the prediction model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated through calibration curves, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curves in the training and validation cohorts. A simplified screening scale and a management algorithm were generated based on the nomogram. Results: Five potential COVID-19 prediction variables, fever, chest CT, WBC, CRP, and PCT, were selected, all independent predictors of multivariable logistic regression analysis, and the nomogram, named the COVID-19 Infectious Acute Abdomen Distinguishment (CIAAD) nomogram, was generated. The CIAAD nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration, and it was validated in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis revealed that the CIAAD nomogram was clinically useful. The nomogram was further simplified as the CIAAD scale. Conclusion: We established an easy and effective screening model and scale for surgeons in the emergency department to use to distinguish COVID-19 patients. The algorithm based on the CIAAD scale will help surgeons more efficiently manage infectious acute abdomen patients suspected of having COVID-19.
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spelling pubmed-81196342021-05-15 Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China Zhao, Bangbo Wei, Yingxin Sun, Wenwu Qin, Cheng Zhou, Xingtong Wang, Zihao Li, Tianhao Cao, Hongtao Wang, Yujun Wang, Weibin Front Med (Lausanne) Medicine Background: During the epidemic, surgeons cannot identify infectious acute abdomen patients with suspected coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) immediately using the current widely applied methods, such as double nucleic acid detection. We aimed to develop and validate a prediction model, presented as a nomogram and scale, to identify infectious acute abdomen patients with suspected COVID-19 more effectively and efficiently. Methods: A total of 584 COVID-19 patients and 238 infectious acute abdomen patients were enrolled. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted to develop the prediction model. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated through calibration curves, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curves in the training and validation cohorts. A simplified screening scale and a management algorithm were generated based on the nomogram. Results: Five potential COVID-19 prediction variables, fever, chest CT, WBC, CRP, and PCT, were selected, all independent predictors of multivariable logistic regression analysis, and the nomogram, named the COVID-19 Infectious Acute Abdomen Distinguishment (CIAAD) nomogram, was generated. The CIAAD nomogram showed good discrimination and calibration, and it was validated in the validation cohort. Decision curve analysis revealed that the CIAAD nomogram was clinically useful. The nomogram was further simplified as the CIAAD scale. Conclusion: We established an easy and effective screening model and scale for surgeons in the emergency department to use to distinguish COVID-19 patients. The algorithm based on the CIAAD scale will help surgeons more efficiently manage infectious acute abdomen patients suspected of having COVID-19. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-04-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8119634/ /pubmed/33996842 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.601941 Text en Copyright © 2021 Zhao, Wei, Sun, Qin, Zhou, Wang, Li, Cao, Wang and Wang. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Medicine
Zhao, Bangbo
Wei, Yingxin
Sun, Wenwu
Qin, Cheng
Zhou, Xingtong
Wang, Zihao
Li, Tianhao
Cao, Hongtao
Wang, Yujun
Wang, Weibin
Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China
title Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China
title_full Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China
title_fullStr Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China
title_full_unstemmed Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China
title_short Distinguishing Coronavirus Disease 2019 Patients From General Surgery Emergency Patients With the CIAAD Scale: Development and Validation of a Prediction Model Based on 822 Cases in China
title_sort distinguishing coronavirus disease 2019 patients from general surgery emergency patients with the ciaad scale: development and validation of a prediction model based on 822 cases in china
topic Medicine
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8119634/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33996842
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2021.601941
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