Circulating anti‐citrullinated protein antibodies containing secretory component are prognostic for arthritis onset in at‐risk patients

Autoantibodies related to rheumatoid arthritis (RA), such as anti‐citrullinated protein antibodies (ACPA), are often detectable in the preclinical period years before arthritis onset. However, events triggering arthritis development remain incompletely known. We aimed to determine whether ACPA isotype levels are prognostic for arthritis development in patients presenting with immunoglobulin (Ig)G ACPA and musculoskeletal pain. Study participants (n = 82) had musculoskeletal pain of any sort and duration and a positive IgG ACPA test. None of the patients had arthritis upon clinical examination at baseline, but during follow‐up (mean = 6 years), 48% developed at least one arthritic joint. IgG, IgA, IgM and secretory component (SC)‐containing ACPA was measured in longitudinally collected serum samples. Cox regression analysis was performed to test the prognostic value of baseline antibody levels and changes over time. All analysed ACPA isotype levels were associated with arthritis development in univariable Cox regression analysis. In multivariable analysis, baseline SC ACPA levels were independently prognostic for arthritis development in multivariable analysis [hazard ratio (HR) = 1·006, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1·001–1·010, P = 0·012]. There were no significant changes in ACPA isotype levels over time, and no significant association between changes over time and arthritis development. In this prospective longitudinal study, baseline serum SC ACPA levels, but neither IgG, IgA nor IgM ACPA are prognostic for future arthritis development. Repeated measurement of ACPA isotypes do not bring additional prognostic value. The results reinforce a mucosal connection in RA development and encourage further exploration of the mechanisms underlying secretory ACPA formation as a trigger for arthritis development.