Predicting the Likelihood of Live Birth in Assisted Reproductive Technology According to the Number of Oocytes Retrieved and Female Age Using a Generalized Additive Model: A Retrospective Cohort Analysis of 17,948 Cycles

CAPSULE: We designed a predictive reference model to evaluate how many stimulation cycles are needed for a patient to achieve an ideal live birth rate using assisted reproductive technology. OBJECTIVE: To develop a counseling tool for women who wish to undergo assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment to predict the likelihood of live birth based on age and number of oocytes retrieved. METHODS: This was a 6-year population-based retrospective cohort analysis using individual patient ART data. Between 2012 and 2017, 17,948 women were analyzed from their single ovarian stimulation cycle until they had a live birth or had used all their embryos. All consecutive women between 20 and 49 years old undergoing their ovarian stimulation cycles for ART in our center were enrolled. The cumulative live birth rate (CLBR) was defined as the delivery of a live neonate born during fresh or subsequent frozen–thawed embryo transfer cycles. Only the first delivery was considered in the analysis. Binary logistic regression was performed to identify and adjust for factors known to affect the CLBR independently. A generalized additive model was used to build a predictive model of CLBR according to the woman’s age and the number of oocytes retrieved. RESULTS: An evidenced-based counseling tool was created to predict the probability of an individual woman having a live birth, based on her age and the number of oocytes retrieved in ART cycles. The model was verified by 10 times 10-fold cross-validation using the preprocessed data, and 100 area under the curve (AUC) values for receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were obtained on the test set. The mean AUC value was 0.7394. Our model predicts different CLBRs ranging from nearly 90% to less than 20% for women aged 20–49 years with at least 22 oocytes retrieved. The CLBRs of women aged 20–28 years were very similar, nearly on one trend line with a certain number of oocytes retrieved. Differences in the CLBR began to appear by the age of 29 years; these increased gradually in women aged >35 years. CONCLUSION: A predictive model of the CLBR was designed to serve as a guide for physicians and for patients considering ART treatment. The number of oocytes needed to be retrieved to achieve a live birth depends on the woman’s age.