Dynamic prediction based on variability of a longitudinal biomarker

BACKGROUND: Tacrolimus is given post-kidney transplant to suppress the immune system, and the amount of drug in the body is measured frequently. Higher variability over time may be indicative of poor drug adherence, leading to more adverse events. It is important to account for the variation in Tacrolimus, not just the average change over time. METHODS: Using data from the University of Colorado, we compare methods of assessing how the variability in Tacrolimus influences the hazard of de novo Donor Specific Antibodies (dnDSA), an early warning sign of graft failure. We compare multiple joint models in terms of fit and predictive ability. We explain that the models that account for the individual-specific variability over time have the best predictive performance. These models allowed each patient to have an individual-specific random error term in the longitudinal Tacrolimus model, and linked this to the hazard of dnDSA model. RESULTS: The hazard for the variance and coefficient of variation (CV) loading parameter were greater than 1, indicating that higher variability of Tacrolimus had a higher hazard of dnDSA. Introducing the individual-specific variability improved the fit, leading to more accurate predictions about the individual-specific time-to-dnDSA. CONCLUSIONS: We showed that the individual’s variability in Tacrolimus is an important metric in predicting long-term adverse events in kidney transplantation. This is an important step in personalizing the dosage of TAC post-transplant to improve outcomes post-transplant. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12874-021-01294-x).