Expected Labor Market Affiliation: A New Method Illustrated by Estimating the Impact of Perceived Stress on Time in Work, Sickness Absence, and Unemployment of 37,605 Danish Employees

As detailed data on labor market affiliation become more accessible, new approaches are needed to address the complex patterns of labor market affiliation. We introduce the expected labor market affiliation (ELMA) method by estimating the time-restricted impact of perceived stress on labor market affiliation in a large sample of Danish employees. Data from two national surveys were linked with a national register. A multi-state proportional hazards model was used to calculate ELMA estimates, i.e., the number of days in work, sickness absence, and unemployment during a 4-year follow-up period, stratified by gender and age. Among employees reporting frequent work-related stress, the expected number of working days decreased with age, ranging from 103 days lost among older women to 37 days lost among younger and middle-aged men. Young and middle-aged women reporting frequent work- and personal life-related stress lost 62 and 81 working days, respectively, and had more days of sickness absence (34 days and 42 days). In conclusion, we showed that perceived stress affects the labor market affiliation. The ELMA estimates provide a detailed understanding of the impact of perceived stress on labor market affiliation over time, and may inform policy and practice towards a more healthy and sustainable working life.