The albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio as an independent predictor of future non-alcoholic fatty liver disease in a 5-year longitudinal cohort study of a non-obese Chinese population

BACKGROUND: The albumin-to-alkaline phosphatase ratio (AAPR) is a newly developed index of liver function, but its association in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has not been established. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between the AAPR and NAFLD in a non-obese Chinese population. METHODS: The study included 10,749 non-obese subjects without NAFLD at baseline and divided them into quintiles according to the AAPR. A Cox multiple regression model was used to examine the association between the AAPR and its quintiles and the incidence of NAFLD. RESULTS: The average age of the study population was 43.65 ± 15.15 years old. During the 5-year follow-up, 1860 non-obese subjects had NAFLD events. In the Cox multiple regression model, after adjusting the model according to important risk factors, the AAPR and NAFLD risk were independently correlated, and with a gradual increase in the AAPR, the NAFLD risk decreased gradually (HR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.47, 0.81; P-trend< 0.0001). Additionally, there were significant interactions between the AAPR and BMI, blood pressure and lipids (P-interaction < 0.05). Stratified analysis showed that the risk of AAPR-related NAFLD decreased in people with normal blood pressure and lipid levels, while the risk of AAPR-related NAFLD increased abnormally in people who were underweight. CONCLUSIONS: This longitudinal cohort study provides the first evidence that the AAPR is an independent predictor of future NAFLD events in non-obese people. For non-obese people with a low AAPR, especially those with BMI < 18.5 kg/m(2), more attention should be given to the management of risk factors for NAFLD to prevent future NAFLD. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12944-021-01479-9.