Pre-pandemic mental and physical health as predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy: evidence from a UK-wide cohort study

IMPORTANCE: Although several predictors of COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy have been identified, the role of physical health has not been well-examined, and the association with mental health is unknown. OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of pre-pandemic mental health, physical health, and shielding with vaccine hesitancy after the announcement of the successful testing of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We used individual-level data from a pandemic-focused investigation (COVID Survey), a prospective cohort study nested within the UK Understanding Society (Main Survey) project. In the week immediately following the announcement of successful testing of the first efficacious inoculation (November/December 2020), data on vaccine intentionality were collected in 12,035 individuals aged 16–95 years. Pre-pandemic, study members had responded to enquiries about diagnoses of mental and physical health, completed the 12-item General Health Questionnaire for symptoms of psychological distress (anxiety and depression), and indicated whether they or someone in their household was shielding. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Self-reported intention to take up a vaccination for COVID-19. To summarise our results, we computed odds ratios with accompanying 95% confidence intervals for indices of health and shielding adjusted for selected covariates. RESULTS: In an analytical sample of 11,955 people (6741 women), 15.4% indicated that they were vaccine hesitant. Relative to their disease-free counterparts, shielding was associated with a 24% lower risk of being hesitant (odds ratio; 95% confidence interval: 0.76; 0.59, 0.96), after adjustment for a range of covariates which included age, education, and ethnicity. Corresponding results for cardiometabolic disease were 22% (0.78; 0.64, 0.95), and for respiratory disease were 26% (0.74; 0.59, 0.93). Having a pre-pandemic diagnosis of anxiety or depression, or a high score on the distress symptom scale, were all unrelated to the willingness to take up a vaccine. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: People who have been prioritised for COVID-19 vaccination owing to a physical condition are more likely to take it up. These effects were not apparent for indices of mental health.