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COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including resource allocation, risk communication, social distancing and travel restriction, are mainstream actions to control the spreading of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Different countries implemented their own combinations of NPIs to pre...

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Autores principales: Chan, Louis Yat Hin, Yuan, Baoyin, Convertino, Matteo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8134637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34012040
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88309-1
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author Chan, Louis Yat Hin
Yuan, Baoyin
Convertino, Matteo
author_facet Chan, Louis Yat Hin
Yuan, Baoyin
Convertino, Matteo
author_sort Chan, Louis Yat Hin
collection PubMed
description Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including resource allocation, risk communication, social distancing and travel restriction, are mainstream actions to control the spreading of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Different countries implemented their own combinations of NPIs to prevent local epidemics and healthcare system overloaded. Portfolios, as temporal sets of NPIs have various systemic impacts on preventing cases in populations. Here, we developed a probabilistic modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness of NPI portfolios at the macroscale. We employed a deconvolution method to back-calculate incidence of infections and estimate the effective reproduction number by using the package EpiEstim. We then evaluated the effectiveness of NPIs using ratios of the reproduction numbers and considered them individually and as a portfolio systemically. Based on estimates from Japan, we estimated time delays of symptomatic-to-confirmation and infection-to-confirmation as 7.4 and 11.4 days, respectively. These were used to correct surveillance data of other countries. Considering 50 countries, risk communication and returning to normal life were the most and least effective yielding the aggregated effectiveness of 0.11 and − 0.05 that correspond to a 22.4% and 12.2% reduction and increase in case growth. The latter is quantified by the change in reproduction number before and after intervention implementation. Countries with the optimal NPI portfolio are along an empirical Pareto frontier where mean and variance of effectiveness are maximized and minimized independently of incidence levels. Results indicate that implemented interventions, regardless of NPI portfolios, had distinct incidence reductions and a clear timing effect on infection dynamics measured by sequences of reproduction numbers. Overall, the successful suppression of the epidemic cannot work without the non-linear effect of NPI portfolios whose effectiveness optimality may relate to country-specific socio-environmental factors.
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spelling pubmed-81346372021-05-25 COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance Chan, Louis Yat Hin Yuan, Baoyin Convertino, Matteo Sci Rep Article Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) including resource allocation, risk communication, social distancing and travel restriction, are mainstream actions to control the spreading of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide. Different countries implemented their own combinations of NPIs to prevent local epidemics and healthcare system overloaded. Portfolios, as temporal sets of NPIs have various systemic impacts on preventing cases in populations. Here, we developed a probabilistic modeling framework to evaluate the effectiveness of NPI portfolios at the macroscale. We employed a deconvolution method to back-calculate incidence of infections and estimate the effective reproduction number by using the package EpiEstim. We then evaluated the effectiveness of NPIs using ratios of the reproduction numbers and considered them individually and as a portfolio systemically. Based on estimates from Japan, we estimated time delays of symptomatic-to-confirmation and infection-to-confirmation as 7.4 and 11.4 days, respectively. These were used to correct surveillance data of other countries. Considering 50 countries, risk communication and returning to normal life were the most and least effective yielding the aggregated effectiveness of 0.11 and − 0.05 that correspond to a 22.4% and 12.2% reduction and increase in case growth. The latter is quantified by the change in reproduction number before and after intervention implementation. Countries with the optimal NPI portfolio are along an empirical Pareto frontier where mean and variance of effectiveness are maximized and minimized independently of incidence levels. Results indicate that implemented interventions, regardless of NPI portfolios, had distinct incidence reductions and a clear timing effect on infection dynamics measured by sequences of reproduction numbers. Overall, the successful suppression of the epidemic cannot work without the non-linear effect of NPI portfolios whose effectiveness optimality may relate to country-specific socio-environmental factors. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-05-19 /pmc/articles/PMC8134637/ /pubmed/34012040 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88309-1 Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Chan, Louis Yat Hin
Yuan, Baoyin
Convertino, Matteo
COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
title COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
title_full COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
title_fullStr COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
title_short COVID-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
title_sort covid-19 non-pharmaceutical intervention portfolio effectiveness and risk communication predominance
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8134637/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34012040
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-88309-1
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