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Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Dengue is a re-emerging disease, currently considered the most important mosquito-borne arbovirus infection affecting humankind, taking into account both its morbidity and mortality. Brazil is considered an endemic country for dengue, such that more than 1,544,987 confirmed cases were notified in 20...

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Autores principales: Xavier, Leandro Layter, Honório, Nildimar Alves, Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira, Peiter, Paulo César
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8136695/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34014989
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251403
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author Xavier, Leandro Layter
Honório, Nildimar Alves
Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira
Peiter, Paulo César
author_facet Xavier, Leandro Layter
Honório, Nildimar Alves
Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira
Peiter, Paulo César
author_sort Xavier, Leandro Layter
collection PubMed
description Dengue is a re-emerging disease, currently considered the most important mosquito-borne arbovirus infection affecting humankind, taking into account both its morbidity and mortality. Brazil is considered an endemic country for dengue, such that more than 1,544,987 confirmed cases were notified in 2019, which means an incidence rate of 735 for every 100 thousand inhabitants. Climate is an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as dengue. Thus, rainfall and temperature are considered macro-factors determinants for dengue, since they directly influence the population density of Aedes aegypti, which is subject to seasonal fluctuations, mainly due to these variables. This study examined the incidence of dengue fever related to the climate influence by using temperature and rainfall variables data obtained from remote sensing via artificial satellites in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The mathematical model that best fits the data is based on an auto-regressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX). It reproduced the values of incidence rates in the study period and managed to predict with good precision in a one-year horizon. The approach described in present work may be replicated in cities around the world by the public health managers, to build auxiliary operational tools for control and prevention tasks of dengue, as well of other arbovirus diseases.
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spelling pubmed-81366952021-06-02 Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil Xavier, Leandro Layter Honório, Nildimar Alves Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira Peiter, Paulo César PLoS One Research Article Dengue is a re-emerging disease, currently considered the most important mosquito-borne arbovirus infection affecting humankind, taking into account both its morbidity and mortality. Brazil is considered an endemic country for dengue, such that more than 1,544,987 confirmed cases were notified in 2019, which means an incidence rate of 735 for every 100 thousand inhabitants. Climate is an important factor in the temporal and spatial distribution of vector-borne diseases, such as dengue. Thus, rainfall and temperature are considered macro-factors determinants for dengue, since they directly influence the population density of Aedes aegypti, which is subject to seasonal fluctuations, mainly due to these variables. This study examined the incidence of dengue fever related to the climate influence by using temperature and rainfall variables data obtained from remote sensing via artificial satellites in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The mathematical model that best fits the data is based on an auto-regressive moving average with exogenous inputs (ARMAX). It reproduced the values of incidence rates in the study period and managed to predict with good precision in a one-year horizon. The approach described in present work may be replicated in cities around the world by the public health managers, to build auxiliary operational tools for control and prevention tasks of dengue, as well of other arbovirus diseases. Public Library of Science 2021-05-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8136695/ /pubmed/34014989 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251403 Text en © 2021 Xavier et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Xavier, Leandro Layter
Honório, Nildimar Alves
Pessanha, José Francisco Moreira
Peiter, Paulo César
Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_full Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_fullStr Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_short Analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
title_sort analysis of climate factors and dengue incidence in the metropolitan region of rio de janeiro, brazil
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8136695/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34014989
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251403
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