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COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020

Total mortality and “burden of disease” in Germany and Italy and their states and regions were explored during the first COVID-19 wave by using publicly available data for 16 German states and 20 Italian regions from January 2016 to June 2020. Based on expectations from 2016 to 2019, simplified Stan...

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Autores principales: Morfeld, Peter, Timmermann, Barbara, Groß, J. Valérie, Lewis, Philip, Cocco, Pierluigi, Erren, Thomas C.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Frontiers Media S.A. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8137836/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34026717
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.663259
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author Morfeld, Peter
Timmermann, Barbara
Groß, J. Valérie
Lewis, Philip
Cocco, Pierluigi
Erren, Thomas C.
author_facet Morfeld, Peter
Timmermann, Barbara
Groß, J. Valérie
Lewis, Philip
Cocco, Pierluigi
Erren, Thomas C.
author_sort Morfeld, Peter
collection PubMed
description Total mortality and “burden of disease” in Germany and Italy and their states and regions were explored during the first COVID-19 wave by using publicly available data for 16 German states and 20 Italian regions from January 2016 to June 2020. Based on expectations from 2016 to 2019, simplified Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) for deaths occurring in the first half of 2020 and the effect of changed excess mortality in terms of “burden of disease” were assessed. Moreover, whether two German states and 19 Italian cities appropriately represent the countries within the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network was explored. Significantly elevated SMRs were observed (Germany: week 14–18, Italy: week 11–18) with SMR peaks in week 15 in Germany (1.15, 95%-CI: 1.09–1.21) and in week 13 in Italy (1.79, 95%-CI: 1.75–1.83). Overall, SMRs were 1.00 (95%-CI: 0.97–1.04) in Germany and 1.06 (95%-CI: 1.03–1.10) in Italy. Significant SMR heterogeneity was found within both countries. Age and sex were strong modifiers. Loss of life expectancy was 0.34 days (1.66 days in men) for Germany and 5.3 days (6.3 days in men) for Italy [with upper limits of 3 and 6 weeks among elderly populations (≥65 years) after maximum potential bias adjustments]. Restricted data used within EuroMOMO neither represents mortality in the countries as a whole nor in their states and regions adequately. Mortality analyses with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic's course.
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spelling pubmed-81378362021-05-22 COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020 Morfeld, Peter Timmermann, Barbara Groß, J. Valérie Lewis, Philip Cocco, Pierluigi Erren, Thomas C. Front Public Health Public Health Total mortality and “burden of disease” in Germany and Italy and their states and regions were explored during the first COVID-19 wave by using publicly available data for 16 German states and 20 Italian regions from January 2016 to June 2020. Based on expectations from 2016 to 2019, simplified Standardized Mortality Ratios (SMRs) for deaths occurring in the first half of 2020 and the effect of changed excess mortality in terms of “burden of disease” were assessed. Moreover, whether two German states and 19 Italian cities appropriately represent the countries within the European monitoring of excess mortality for public health action (EuroMOMO) network was explored. Significantly elevated SMRs were observed (Germany: week 14–18, Italy: week 11–18) with SMR peaks in week 15 in Germany (1.15, 95%-CI: 1.09–1.21) and in week 13 in Italy (1.79, 95%-CI: 1.75–1.83). Overall, SMRs were 1.00 (95%-CI: 0.97–1.04) in Germany and 1.06 (95%-CI: 1.03–1.10) in Italy. Significant SMR heterogeneity was found within both countries. Age and sex were strong modifiers. Loss of life expectancy was 0.34 days (1.66 days in men) for Germany and 5.3 days (6.3 days in men) for Italy [with upper limits of 3 and 6 weeks among elderly populations (≥65 years) after maximum potential bias adjustments]. Restricted data used within EuroMOMO neither represents mortality in the countries as a whole nor in their states and regions adequately. Mortality analyses with high spatial and temporal resolution are needed to monitor the COVID-19 pandemic's course. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-05-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8137836/ /pubmed/34026717 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.663259 Text en Copyright © 2021 Morfeld, Timmermann, Groß, Lewis, Cocco and Erren. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
spellingShingle Public Health
Morfeld, Peter
Timmermann, Barbara
Groß, J. Valérie
Lewis, Philip
Cocco, Pierluigi
Erren, Thomas C.
COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020
title COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020
title_full COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020
title_fullStr COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020
title_full_unstemmed COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020
title_short COVID-19: Heterogeneous Excess Mortality and “Burden of Disease” in Germany and Italy and Their States and Regions, January–June 2020
title_sort covid-19: heterogeneous excess mortality and “burden of disease” in germany and italy and their states and regions, january–june 2020
topic Public Health
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8137836/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34026717
http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.663259
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