Population-Based Study of Docetaxel or Abiraterone Effectiveness and Predictive Markers of Progression Free Survival in Metastatic Castration-Sensitive Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND: Both Docetaxel (DOC) and Abiraterone (ABI) improve the survival of men with metastatic, castration sensitive prostate cancer (mCSPC). However, the outcome among mCSPC patients is highly variable, while there is a lack of predictive markers of therapeutic benefit. Furthermore, there is limited data on the comparative real-world effectiveness of adding DOC or ABI to androgen deprivation therapy (ADT). METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 121 mCSPC patients treated at Odette Cancer Centre (Toronto, ON, Canada) between Dec 2014 and Mar 2021 (DOC n = 79, ABI n = 42). The primary endpoint studied was progression free survival (PFS), defined as the interval from start of ADT to either (i) biochemical, radiological, or symptomatic progression, (ii) start of first-line systemic therapy for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC), or (iii) death, whichever occurred first. To identify independent predictive factors for PFS in the entire cohort, a Cox proportional hazard model (stepwise selection) was applied. Overall survival (OS) was among secondary endpoints. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 39.6 and 25.1 months in the DOC and ABI cohorts, respectively, 79.7% of men in the DOC and 40.5% in the ABI group experienced a progression event. PFS favored the ABI cohort (p = 0.0038, log-rank test), with 78.0% (95%CI 66.4–91.8%) of ABI versus 67.1% (57.5–78.3%) of DOC patients being free of progression at 12 months. In univariate analysis superior PFS was significantly related to older age at diagnosis of mCSPC, metachronous metastatic presentation, low-volume (CHAARTED), and low-risk (LATITUDE) disease, ≥90% PSA decrease at 3 months (PSA90), and PSA nadir ≤0.2 at 6 months. Age (HR = 0.955), PSA90 (HR = 0.462), and LATITUDE risk stratification (HR = 1.965) remained significantly associated with PFS in multivariable analysis. OS at 12 months was 98.7% (96.3–100%) and 92.7% (85.0–100%) in the DOC and ABI groups (p = 0.97), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In this real-world group of men undergoing treatment intensification with DOC or ABI for mCSPC, we did not find a significant difference in OS, but PFS was favoring ABI. Age at diagnosis of mCSPC, PSA90 at 3 months and LATITUDE risk classification are predictive factors of PFS in men with mCSPC.