Risk Prediction Using Bayesian Networks: An Immunotherapy Case Study in Patients With Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma

To address the need for more accurate risk stratification models for cancer immuno-oncology, this study aimed to develop a machine-learned Bayesian network model (BNM) for predicting outcomes in patients with metastatic renal cell carcinoma (mRCC) being treated with immunotherapy. METHODS: Patient-level data from the randomized, phase III CheckMate 025 clinical trial comparing nivolumab with everolimus for second-line treatment in patients with mRCC were used to develop the BNM. Outcomes of interest were overall survival (OS), all-cause adverse events, and treatment-related adverse events (TRAE) over 36 months after treatment initiation. External validation of the model's predictions for OS was conducted using data from select centers from the International Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma Database Consortium (IMDC). RESULTS: Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCs) for BNM-based classification of OS using baseline data were 0.74, 0.71, and 0.68 over months 12, 24, and 36, respectively. AUC for OS at 12 months increased to 0.86 when treatment response and progression status in year 1 were included as predictors; progression and response at 12 months were highly prognostic of all outcomes over the 36-month period. AUCs for adverse events and treatment-related adverse events were approximately 0.6 at 12 months but increased to approximately 0.7 by 36 months. Sensitivity analysis comparing the BNM with machine learning classifiers showed comparable performance. Test AUC on IMDC data for 12-month OS was 0.71 despite several variable imbalances. Notably, the BNM outperformed the IMDC risk score alone. CONCLUSION: The validated BNM performed well at prediction using baseline data, particularly with the inclusion of response and progression at 12 months. Additionally, the results suggest that 12 months of follow-up data alone may be sufficient to inform long-term survival projections in patients with mRCC.