GPS Assay Association With Long-Term Cancer Outcomes: Twenty-Year Risk of Distant Metastasis and Prostate Cancer–Specific Mortality

PURPOSE: To assess the association between the Oncotype DX Genomic Prostate Score (GPS) result and long-term oncological outcomes following radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS: We evaluated the association of the GPS result assayed from the index lesion from RP tissue with the risk of distant metastases (DM) and prostate cancer–specific mortality (PCSM) over the 20 years following RP in a stratified cohort sample of 428 patients from 2,641 treated between 1987 and 2004. Cox regression of cause-specific hazards was used to estimate the absolute risk of both end points, with death from other causes treated as a competing risk. A correction for regression to the mean (RM) was applied since the GPS test was developed using this cohort. Exploratory analysis using presurgical parameters and the GPS test as prognostic variables was performed to assess the additional value of the GPS test on 20-year risk of DM and PCSM. Model discrimination was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: The GPS test appears to be independently associated with both 20-year risk of DM and PCSM with a low false discovery rate. Per 20-unit increase in GPS, multivariable analysis with RM correction estimated hazard ratios of 2.24 (95% CI, 1.49 to 3.53) and 2.30 (95% CI, 1.45 to 4.36) for DM and PCSM, respectively. Accuracy of models including clinical risk factors alone appeared to improve when including the GPS test in assessing risk of both end points. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that the GPS test provides information on the risk for the meaningful long-term outcomes of DM and PCSM.