Malaria incidence and mortality in Zimbabwe during the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of routine surveillance data

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has posed a unique challenge to health care systems globally. To curb COVID-19 transmission, mitigation measures such as travel restrictions, border closures, curfews, lockdowns, and social distancing have been implemented. However, these measures may directly and indirectly affect the delivery and utilization of essential health services, including malaria services. The suspension of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and insecticide-treated net (ITN) distribution, shortages of malaria commodities, and reduced demand for health services have hindered the continued delivery of malaria services. The overall goal of this analysis was to describe the trends in malaria incidence and mortality in Zimbabwe prior to and during the pandemic to understand the consequences of COVID-19-related changes in the delivery and utilization of malaria services. METHODS: Monthly data on the number of malaria cases and deaths by district for the period January 2017 to June 2020 were obtained from the national health management information system (HMIS). District-level population data were obtained from the 2012 Census. Malaria incidence per 1000 population and malaria deaths per 100,000 population were calculated for 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020 and mapped to describe the spatial and temporal variation of malaria at the district level. RESULTS: Compared to the same period in 2017, 2018 and 2019, there was an excess of over 30,000 malaria cases from January to June 2020. The number of malaria deaths recorded in January to June 2020 exceeded the annual totals for 2018 and 2019. District level maps indicated that areas outside high malaria burden provinces experienced higher than expected malaria incidence and mortality, suggesting potential outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: The observed surge in malaria cases and deaths in January to June 2020 coincided with the onset of COVID-19 in Zimbabwe. While further research is needed to explore possible explanations for the observed trends, prioritizing the continuity of essential malaria services amid the COVID-19 pandemic remains crucial. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03770-7.