Hepatic Metastasis in Newly Diagnosed Esophageal Cancer: A Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND: The hepatic metastasis pattern of esophageal cancer (EC) has not been fully explored. The primary objective of this study was to explore the predictors of esophageal cancer with hepatic metastasis (ECHM) at the time of diagnosis. In addition, we also analyzed the factors affecting ECHM prognosis. METHODS: We used the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Result (SEER) database to identify ECHM patients at the time of initial diagnosis. The ECHM predictors were identified using multivariate logistic regression. Multivariate Cox regression and competing survival risk analyses were performed to identify factors associated with all-cause mortality and EC-specific mortality of ECHM, respectively. RESULTS: A total of 10,965 eligible EC patients were identified in the SEER database between 2010 and 2016, of which 1,197 were ECHM patients, accounting for 10.9% of the entire cohort. In the whole cohort, eight ECHM predictors (age, primary site, grade, histology type, T staging, N staging, insurance status, and number of extrahepatic metastatic sites) were determined using multivariate logistic regression analysis. Multivariate Cox regression and multivariate competing survival risks models confirmed that the male sex, advanced age, squamous cancer, and multiple extrahepatic metastasis increased the risk of both all-cause and EC-specific mortality, whereas chemotherapy and chemotherapy plus radiotherapy significantly reduced the risk of both. CONCLUSIONS: This study explored population-level predictors of hepatic metastasis at the time of EC diagnosis and analyzed the clinical characteristics affecting the prognosis in ECHM patients. These findings may provide clinicians with a reference for the screening and treatment of hepatic metastasis in EC.