Determining the Impact of Hogget Breeding Performance on Profitability under a Fixed Feed Supply Scenario in New Zealand

SIMPLE SUMMARY: In New Zealand, hoggets (female lambs aged 4 to 16 months) can be bred at 8 to 9 months of age to produce a lamb. Breeding hoggets may improve farm production and profit but their levels of production are highly variable. This study modelled ewe flocks with combinations of hogget and mature ewe production levels to investigate changes in production and profit with hogget breeding. Firstly, breeding hoggets was profitable even when hogget production levels were as low as 0.26 lambs weaned per hogget. Secondly, improving mature ewe production levels was more beneficial for profit than larger improvements in hogget production levels. Thirdly, the highest profit was achieved when a flock had both very high mature ewe and hogget production levels. Fourthly, there was a mature ewe production level with which profit was the same for a flock without hogget breeding compared with a flock achieving New Zealand industry average hogget and mature ewe production levels. Overall, the relative profit levels achieved by the modelled flocks suggest more farmers should consider breeding hoggets but improving mature ewe production levels should be prioritised. ABSTRACT: Hoggets (ewe lambs aged 4 to 16 months) can be bred from approximately 8 months of age for potentially increased flock production and profit, however most New Zealand hoggets are not presented for breeding and their reproductive success is highly variable. Bio-economic modelling was used to analyse flock productivity and profit in four sets of scenarios for ewe flocks with varying mature ewe (FWR) and hogget (HWR) weaning rate combinations. Firstly, hogget breeding was identified to become profitable when break-even HWRs of 26% and 28% were achieved for flocks with FWRs of 135% and 150%, respectively. Secondly, relatively smaller improvements in FWR were identified to increase profit to the same level as larger improvements in HWR. Thirdly, a high performing flock with FWR and HWR both ≥ the 90th percentile currently achieved commercially, was the most profitable flock modelled. Fourthly, a FWR was identified with which a farmer not wishing to breed hoggets could have the same profit as a farmer with a flock achieving current industry average FWR and HWR. Overall, the relative profit levels achieved by the modelled flocks suggest that more farmers should consider breeding their hoggets, though improvements in FWRs should be prioritised.