US–Taliban peace deal and regional powers as potential spoilers: Iran as a case study

There is a broad consensus that the US–Taliban peace deal does not augur peace and stability in Afghanistan. However, most of the experts have ignored the role of regional powers and their interests and their impact on the US–Taliban peace deal. This paper explores the case of Iran as a potential spoiler and exacerbating violence and instability in Afghanistan. It discusses three reasons for Iran’s intervention: the Taliban dominating the inclusive national unity government or trying to establish an Islamic Emirate through military force and Iran-Pakistan clash of interests, the continued persecution of Shias and Hazaras by the Taliban and worsening of US–Iran relations. It highlights the various tools especially the non-state actors at Iran’s disposal to achieve its political, economic and strategic objectives in Afghanistan. It also analyses the potential constraints that might limit/inhibit Iran in meeting its foreign policy and security objectives in Afghanistan and the broader region.