Perioperative Predictors of Early Recurrence for Resectable and Borderline-Resectable Pancreatic Cancer

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Most patients with a pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma develop a recurrence after surgery. Predictive factors may therefore guide therapeutic decision-making. We aimed to identify perioperative predictors of the early recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas. We found that preoperative (>52 U/mL) and postoperative (>37 U/mL) elevated carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels as well as a tumor size >3.0 cm were independently associated with an early recurrence after a pancreatectomy. Furthermore, an early recurrence resulted in a more frequent liver metastasis than a late recurrence, suggesting that patients experiencing a recurrence within 12 months had undetectable micrometastases. Further studies are needed to identify new biomarkers for the detection of clinically occult micrometastases during surgery as current preoperative risk factors are inadequate to accurately identify patients susceptible to an early recurrence of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas. ABSTRACT: We aimed to identify the perioperative predictors of the early recurrence (ER) of resectable and borderline-resectable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs). After surgery for a PDAC, most patients develop a recurrence. Predictive factors may therefore guide therapeutic decision-making. Patients (n = 234) who underwent a pancreatectomy for a PDAC between 2006 and 2019 were included. The postrecurrence survival (PRS) was estimated using Kaplan–Meier curves. Predictive factors for an ER were assessed using logistic regression analyses; 93 patients (39.7%) were recurrence-free at the last follow-up. Patients with an ER (n = 85, 36.3%), defined as a recurrence within the first 12 months after surgery, had 1- and 2-year PRS rates of 38.7% and 9.5%, respectively, compared with 66.9% and 37.2% for those with a late recurrence (n = 56, 23.9%; both p < 0.001). The most common site of an ER was the liver (55.3%) with a significantly shorter median overall survival time than that with either a local or a lung recurrence (14.5 months; p < 0.001). Preoperative and postoperative risk factors for an ER included a tumor size >3.0 cm (odds ratio (OR): 3.11, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35–7.14) and preoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) levels >52 U/mL (OR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.67–6.30) and a pathological tumor size >3.0 cm (OR: 2.00, 95% CI: 1.03–3.90) and postoperative carbohydrate antigen 19-9 levels >37 U/mL (OR: 2.11, 95% CI: 1.02–4.36), respectively. Preoperatively (>52 U/mL) and postoperatively (>37 U/mL) elevated CA19-9 and a tumor size >3.0 cm were independent predictors for an ER after a pancreatectomy for a PDAC.