Development and validation of a nomogram to predict survival outcome among epithelial ovarian cancer patients with site-distant metastases: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: Increasing evidence indicates that site-distant metastases are associated with survival outcomes in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic values of site-distant metastases and clinical factors and develop a prognostic nomogram score individually predicting overall survival (OS, equivalent to all-cause mortality) and cancer specific survival (CSS, equivalent to cancer-specific mortality) in patients with epithelial ovarian cancer. METHODS: We retrospectively collected data on patients with epithelial ovarian cancer from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1975 and 2016. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to identify survival trajectories. A nomogram score was used to predict long-term survival probability. A comparison between the nomogram and the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO 2018) staging system was conducted using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (tROC) curve. RESULTS: A total of 131,050 patients were included, 18.2, 7.8 and 66.1% had localized, regional and distant metastases, respectively. Multivariate analysis identified several prognostic factors for OS including race, grade, histology, FIGO staging, surgery, bone metastasis, liver metastasis, lung metastasis, and lymphatic metastasis. Prognostic factors for CSS included grade, site, FIGO staging, surgery, bone metastasis, brain metastasis, lung metastasis, lymphatic metastasis, and insurance. Following bootstrap correction, the C-index of OS and CSS was 0.791 and 0.752, respectively. These nomograms showed superior performance compared with the FIGO 2018 staging criteria (P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: A novel prognostic nomogram score provides better prognostic performance than the FIGO 2018 staging system. These nomograms contribute to directing clinical treatment and prognosis assessment in patients harboring site-distant metastases. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-07977-4.