Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics

An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of mode...

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Autores principales: Tomchin, Dmitry A., Fradkov, Alexander L.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: , IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. 2020
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8153197/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209
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author Tomchin, Dmitry A.
Fradkov, Alexander L.
author_facet Tomchin, Dmitry A.
Fradkov, Alexander L.
author_sort Tomchin, Dmitry A.
collection PubMed
description An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020.
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spelling pubmed-81531972021-05-28 Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics Tomchin, Dmitry A. Fradkov, Alexander L. IFAC-PapersOnLine Article An attempt is made to use the simplest epidemic models: SIR and SEIR to predict the spread of COVID-19 in Russia. Simplicity and a small number of parameters are very significant advantages of SIR and SEIR models in conditions of a lack of numerical initial data and structural incompleteness of models. The forecast of distribution of COVID-19 in Russia is carried out according to public data sets from March 10 to April 20, 2020. Comparison of forecast results by SIR and SEIR models are given. In both cases, the peak number of infected persons while maintaining the current level of quarantine measures is forecasted at the end of May 2020. , IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. 2020 2021-05-26 /pmc/articles/PMC8153197/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209 Text en © 2019, IFAC (International Federation of Automatic Control) Hosting by Elsevier Ltd. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Tomchin, Dmitry A.
Fradkov, Alexander L.
Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
title Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
title_full Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
title_fullStr Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
title_full_unstemmed Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
title_short Prediction of the COVID-19 spread in Russia based on SIR and SEIR models of epidemics
title_sort prediction of the covid-19 spread in russia based on sir and seir models of epidemics
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8153197/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ifacol.2021.04.209
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