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FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems

In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FOCUSED (FOrecast Correction Using Successive prEDictions), for forecast correction of short-term wind speed predictions. We developed FOCUSED with the aim of improving the forecast of bora gusts, which frequently result in high-speed wind situations...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Kunić, Zdravko, Ženko, Bernard, Boshkoska, Biljana Mileva
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8153314/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34068317
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21103405
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author Kunić, Zdravko
Ženko, Bernard
Boshkoska, Biljana Mileva
author_facet Kunić, Zdravko
Ženko, Bernard
Boshkoska, Biljana Mileva
author_sort Kunić, Zdravko
collection PubMed
description In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FOCUSED (FOrecast Correction Using Successive prEDictions), for forecast correction of short-term wind speed predictions. We developed FOCUSED with the aim of improving the forecast of bora gusts, which frequently result in high-speed wind situations dangerous for traffic. The motivation arises from occasionally ambiguous results of the currently deployed decision support system, which aids traffic management in strong and gusty wind conditions at the coast of Croatia. The proposed correction algorithm uses characteristics of numerical weather prediction models to iteratively forecast the wind speed multiple times for the same future window. We use these iterative predictions as input features of the FOCUSED algorithm and get the corrected predictions as the output. We compared the proposed algorithm with artificial neural networks, random forests, support vector machines, and linear regression to demonstrate the superiority of the algorithm’s performance on a data set comprising five years of real data measurements at the Croatian bridge “Krk” and complementary historical forecasts by ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) numerical weather prediction model.
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spelling pubmed-81533142021-05-27 FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems Kunić, Zdravko Ženko, Bernard Boshkoska, Biljana Mileva Sensors (Basel) Article In this paper, we propose a new algorithm, called FOCUSED (FOrecast Correction Using Successive prEDictions), for forecast correction of short-term wind speed predictions. We developed FOCUSED with the aim of improving the forecast of bora gusts, which frequently result in high-speed wind situations dangerous for traffic. The motivation arises from occasionally ambiguous results of the currently deployed decision support system, which aids traffic management in strong and gusty wind conditions at the coast of Croatia. The proposed correction algorithm uses characteristics of numerical weather prediction models to iteratively forecast the wind speed multiple times for the same future window. We use these iterative predictions as input features of the FOCUSED algorithm and get the corrected predictions as the output. We compared the proposed algorithm with artificial neural networks, random forests, support vector machines, and linear regression to demonstrate the superiority of the algorithm’s performance on a data set comprising five years of real data measurements at the Croatian bridge “Krk” and complementary historical forecasts by ALADIN (Aire Limitée Adaptation dynamique Développement InterNational) numerical weather prediction model. MDPI 2021-05-13 /pmc/articles/PMC8153314/ /pubmed/34068317 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21103405 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Kunić, Zdravko
Ženko, Bernard
Boshkoska, Biljana Mileva
FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems
title FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems
title_full FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems
title_fullStr FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems
title_full_unstemmed FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems
title_short FOCUSED–Short-Term Wind Speed Forecast Correction Algorithm Based on Successive NWP Forecasts for Use in Traffic Control Decision Support Systems
title_sort focused–short-term wind speed forecast correction algorithm based on successive nwp forecasts for use in traffic control decision support systems
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8153314/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34068317
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/s21103405
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