Bayesian Estimation of the True Seroprevalence and Risk Factor Analysis of Bovine Leukemia Virus Infection in Pakistan

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The enzootic bovine leucosis is the most common and economically important viral disease of cattle, caused by bovine leukemia virus (BLV). In cattle, infection with BLV leads to decreased milk production and premature culling and also impairs the immune system predisposing animals to other infections and increasing severity of disease. The aim of this study was to estimate the true seropositivity to BLV at the farm and within-farm levels in Pakistan, using a latent class analysis. In addition, some factors influencing BLV seropositivity were analyzed. We tested 1380 dairy cattle from 451 herds and 92 water buffalo. Analysis at the within-herd and herd levels showed 3.8% of cattle and 1.4% of herds were truly seropositive. All 92 serum samples from water buffalo were negative. The study demonstrated strong association between BLV seroprevalence and herd size but not with common housing of cattle representing indigenous breeds with exotic breed or their crossbred and also common housing of cattle and water buffalo. ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to determine the true seroprevalence of bovine leukemia virus (BLV) infection in dairy cattle from Pakistan at the animal and herd-level. We tested 1380 dairy cattle from 451 herds and 92 water buffalo. The sera were tested by ELISA and the results were analyzed using Bayesian inference. The median posterior estimate of the herd level true BLV prevalence was 1.4%, with a 95% credible interval (CI) 0.7–3.1, whereas the median posterior estimate of the within-farm true seroprevalence was 3.8% with a 95% CI 2.8–4.8. All 92 sera collected from water buffalo were negative. Several risk factors potentially associated with seropositivity to BLV infections in Pakistan were analyzed using logistic regression model based on calculation of an odds ratio (OR). The study showed an association between seropositivity and medium herd (≥50) size (OR = 23.57, 95% CI: 3.01–103.48). Common housing of indigenous cattle with exotic-breed cattle (OR = 0.67, 95% CI: 06–2.35) or housing indigenous or their crossbred cattle with exotic-breed cattle (OR = 0.95, 95% CI: 0.14–3.01) had no effect on the BLV seroprevalence. Similarly, common housing of cattle and water buffalo was not risk factor for increased BLV seropositivity (OR = 27.10, 95% CI: 0.63–119.34).