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A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia

The second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a four-day mass gathering held in Sri Petaling from February 27, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting from March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases...

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Autores principales: Dass, Sarat C., Kwok, Wai M., Gibson, Gavin J., Gill, Balvinder S., Sundram, Bala M., Singh, Sarbhan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8158983/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34043676
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252136
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author Dass, Sarat C.
Kwok, Wai M.
Gibson, Gavin J.
Gill, Balvinder S.
Sundram, Bala M.
Singh, Sarbhan
author_facet Dass, Sarat C.
Kwok, Wai M.
Gibson, Gavin J.
Gill, Balvinder S.
Sundram, Bala M.
Singh, Sarbhan
author_sort Dass, Sarat C.
collection PubMed
description The second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a four-day mass gathering held in Sri Petaling from February 27, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting from March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model disease dynamics before and after intervention which is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implementation within a short time period. The models and methodology used provided important insights into the nature of local transmissions to decision makers in the Ministry of Health, Malaysia.
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spelling pubmed-81589832021-06-10 A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia Dass, Sarat C. Kwok, Wai M. Gibson, Gavin J. Gill, Balvinder S. Sundram, Bala M. Singh, Sarbhan PLoS One Research Article The second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a four-day mass gathering held in Sri Petaling from February 27, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting from March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in Malaysia. A heterogeneous variant of the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model is developed with additional compartments for asymptomatic transmission. Further, a change-point is incorporated to model disease dynamics before and after intervention which is inferred based on data. Related statistical analyses for inference are developed in a Bayesian framework and are able to provide quantitative assessments of (1) the impact of the Sri Petaling gathering, and (2) the extent of decreasing transmission during the MCO period. The analysis here also quantitatively demonstrates how quickly transmission rates fall under effective NPI implementation within a short time period. The models and methodology used provided important insights into the nature of local transmissions to decision makers in the Ministry of Health, Malaysia. Public Library of Science 2021-05-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8158983/ /pubmed/34043676 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252136 Text en © 2021 Dass et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Dass, Sarat C.
Kwok, Wai M.
Gibson, Gavin J.
Gill, Balvinder S.
Sundram, Bala M.
Singh, Sarbhan
A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia
title A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia
title_full A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia
title_fullStr A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia
title_full_unstemmed A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia
title_short A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia
title_sort data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on covid-19 spread in malaysia
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8158983/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34043676
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252136
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