Non-oil economic transition for economic and environmental sustainability in Saudi Arabia: a multi-factor analysis under fuzzy environment

In this study, an analysis of Saudi Arabia’s economic diversification, particularly non-oil transition, is conducted. Initially, key success factors and sub-factors that provide basis for the analysis are identified through literature survey. Three key factors (economic, labor, and market), twenty-one sub-factors (seven under each factor) are identified. To obtain the relative importance of factors and sub-factors, fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) has been used. The economic criterion obtained the highest weight followed respectively by fiscal and labor criteria. The “proportion of Saudis in the workforce” sub-criterion received the highest weight under labor criterion, the “investment-intensive business models” sub-criterion obtained the highest weight under economic criterion, and the “increase non-oil revenue” sub-criterion got the highest weight under fiscal criterion. Overall, increase non-oil revenue sub-criterion (under fiscal criterion) received the highest weight. Later, eight major non-oil sectors are prioritized with respect to criteria and sub-criteria using fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to the ideal solution. Petrochemicals sector ranked topped in the contribution to achieving non-oil transition. The findings of the study shall enable the government and policymakers to specifically design policies for respective sectors knowing their importance in the transition and subsequently bring a new cycle of prosperity to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.