Diabetes Mellitus as a Risk Factor for Progression from Acute Kidney Injury to Acute Kidney Disease: A Specific Prediction Model

PURPOSE: Acute kidney injury is very common in hospitalized patients and carries a significant risk of mortality. Although timely intervention may improve patient prognosis, studies on the development of acute kidney disease in patients with acute kidney injury remain scarce. Thus, we constructed a prediction model to identify patients likely to develop acute kidney disease. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Among 474 patients screened for eligibility, 261 were enrolled and randomly divided into training (185 patients) and independent validation cohorts (76 patients). Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to select features and build a nomogram incorporating the selected predictors: diabetes, anemia, oliguria, and peak creatinine. Calibration, discrimination, and the clinical usefulness of the model were assessed using calibration plots, the C-index, receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis. RESULTS: Diabetes was significantly associated with the presence of AKD. Peak creatinine, oliguria, and anemia also contributed to the progression of acute kidney injury. The model displayed good predictive power with a C-index of 0.834 and an AUC of 0.834 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.773–0.895) in the training cohort and a C-index of 0.851 and an AUC of 0.851 (95% CI: 0.753–0.949) in the validation cohort. The calibration curves also showed that the model had a medium ability to predict acute kidney disease risk. Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram was clinically useful when interventions were decided at the possibility threshold of 22%. CONCLUSION: This novel prediction nomogram may allow for convenient prediction of acute kidney disease in patients with acute kidney injury, which may help to improve outcomes.