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Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing

Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement o...

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Autores principales: Lucas, Tim C. D., Davis, Emma L., Ayabina, Diepreye, Borlase, Anna, Crellen, Thomas, Pi, Li, Medley, Graham F., Yardley, Lucy, Klepac, Petra, Gog, Julia, Déirdre Hollingsworth, T.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165588/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34053257
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0270
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author Lucas, Tim C. D.
Davis, Emma L.
Ayabina, Diepreye
Borlase, Anna
Crellen, Thomas
Pi, Li
Medley, Graham F.
Yardley, Lucy
Klepac, Petra
Gog, Julia
Déirdre Hollingsworth, T.
author_facet Lucas, Tim C. D.
Davis, Emma L.
Ayabina, Diepreye
Borlase, Anna
Crellen, Thomas
Pi, Li
Medley, Graham F.
Yardley, Lucy
Klepac, Petra
Gog, Julia
Déirdre Hollingsworth, T.
author_sort Lucas, Tim C. D.
collection PubMed
description Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.
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spelling pubmed-81655882021-06-03 Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing Lucas, Tim C. D. Davis, Emma L. Ayabina, Diepreye Borlase, Anna Crellen, Thomas Pi, Li Medley, Graham F. Yardley, Lucy Klepac, Petra Gog, Julia Déirdre Hollingsworth, T. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Articles Contact tracing is an important tool for allowing countries to ease lockdown policies introduced to combat SARS-CoV-2. For contact tracing to be effective, those with symptoms must self-report themselves while their contacts must self-isolate when asked. However, policies such as legal enforcement of self-isolation can create trade-offs by dissuading individuals from self-reporting. We use an existing branching process model to examine which aspects of contact tracing adherence should be prioritized. We consider an inverse relationship between self-isolation adherence and self-reporting engagement, assuming that increasingly strict self-isolation policies will result in fewer individuals self-reporting to the programme. We find that policies which increase the average duration of self-isolation, or that increase the probability that people self-isolate at all, at the expense of reduced self-reporting rate, will not decrease the risk of a large outbreak and may increase the risk, depending on the strength of the trade-off. These results suggest that policies to increase self-isolation adherence should be implemented carefully. Policies that increase self-isolation adherence at the cost of self-reporting rates should be avoided. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’. The Royal Society 2021-07-19 2021-05-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8165588/ /pubmed/34053257 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0270 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Articles
Lucas, Tim C. D.
Davis, Emma L.
Ayabina, Diepreye
Borlase, Anna
Crellen, Thomas
Pi, Li
Medley, Graham F.
Yardley, Lucy
Klepac, Petra
Gog, Julia
Déirdre Hollingsworth, T.
Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
title Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
title_full Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
title_fullStr Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
title_full_unstemmed Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
title_short Engagement and adherence trade-offs for SARS-CoV-2 contact tracing
title_sort engagement and adherence trade-offs for sars-cov-2 contact tracing
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165588/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34053257
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0270
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