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A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality

An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19...

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Autores principales: Danon, Leon, Brooks-Pollock, Ellen, Bailey, Mick, Keeling, Matt
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165591/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34053261
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0272
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author Danon, Leon
Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
Bailey, Mick
Keeling, Matt
author_facet Danon, Leon
Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
Bailey, Mick
Keeling, Matt
author_sort Danon, Leon
collection PubMed
description An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to inform population sizes and movements, together with parameter estimates from the outbreak in China. We predict that the epidemic will peak 126 to 147 days (approx. 4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in the absence of controls. Assuming biological parameters remain unchanged and transmission persists from February, we expect the peak to occur in June. Starting location and model stochasticity have a minimal impact on peak timing. However, realistic parameter uncertainty leads to peak time estimates ranging from 78 to 241 days following sustained transmission. Seasonal changes in transmission rate can substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic. We provide initial estimates of the epidemic potential of COVID-19. These results can be refined with more precise parameters. Seasonal changes in transmission could shift the timing of the peak into winter, with important implications for healthcare capacity planning. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK.
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spelling pubmed-81655912021-06-03 A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality Danon, Leon Brooks-Pollock, Ellen Bailey, Mick Keeling, Matt Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci Articles An outbreak of a novel coronavirus was first reported in China on 31 December 2019. As of 9 February 2020, cases have been reported in 25 countries, including probable human-to-human transmission in England. We adapted an existing national-scale metapopulation model to capture the spread of COVID-19 in England and Wales. We used 2011 census data to inform population sizes and movements, together with parameter estimates from the outbreak in China. We predict that the epidemic will peak 126 to 147 days (approx. 4 months) after the start of person-to-person transmission in the absence of controls. Assuming biological parameters remain unchanged and transmission persists from February, we expect the peak to occur in June. Starting location and model stochasticity have a minimal impact on peak timing. However, realistic parameter uncertainty leads to peak time estimates ranging from 78 to 241 days following sustained transmission. Seasonal changes in transmission rate can substantially impact the timing and size of the epidemic. We provide initial estimates of the epidemic potential of COVID-19. These results can be refined with more precise parameters. Seasonal changes in transmission could shift the timing of the peak into winter, with important implications for healthcare capacity planning. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK. The Royal Society 2021-07-19 2021-05-31 /pmc/articles/PMC8165591/ /pubmed/34053261 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0272 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Articles
Danon, Leon
Brooks-Pollock, Ellen
Bailey, Mick
Keeling, Matt
A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
title A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
title_full A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
title_fullStr A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
title_full_unstemmed A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
title_short A spatial model of COVID-19 transmission in England and Wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
title_sort spatial model of covid-19 transmission in england and wales: early spread, peak timing and the impact of seasonality
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8165591/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34053261
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2020.0272
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