A Model Combining Skeletal Muscle Mass and a Hematological Biomarker to Predict Survival in Patients With Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma Undergoing Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy

BACKGROUND: Using the current tumor lymph node metastasis (TNM) staging system to make treatment decisions and predict survival in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) lacks sufficient accuracy. Patients at the same stage often have different survival prognoses. METHODS: In the current study 802 NPC patients who underwent concurrent radiotherapy and chemotherapy from January 2010 to December 2014 at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center in China were retrospectively assessed. The optimal cut-off points for skeletal muscle index (SMI) and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) were determined via receiver operating characteristic curves. SMI-MLR (S-M) grade and a nomogram were developed and used as clinical indicators in NPC patients. The consistency index (C-index) and a calibration curve were used to measure the accuracy and discriminative capacity of prediction. RESULTS: The predictive performance of S-M grade was better than that of TNM staging (C-index 0.639, range 0.578–0.701 vs. 0.605, range 0.545–0.665; p = 0.037). In multivariate analysis S-M grade, T stage, and N stage were independent prognostic factors. These three factors were then combined, yielding a nomogram with a C-index of 0.71 (range 0.64–0.77), indicating good predictive capacity. CONCLUSION: We developed and validated a prognostic parameter, S-M grade, which increased prediction accuracy significantly and can be combined with TNM staging to predict survival in patients with NPC undergoing concurrent chemoradiotherapy.