Delving into possible missing links for attainment of food security in Central Malawi: farmers’ perceptions and long term dynamics in maize (Zea mays L.) production

Globally, maize is one of the major cereal crops contributing 30% of food calories to about 4.6 billion people. The crop is considered staple in 125 developing countries where majority of producers are smallholder farmers. From 1960s to present, production and area for maize have increased but yield has remained questionable in most developing countries. Limited knowledge, poor linkages among service providers, climate change, land degradation, input costs are some of the challenges limiting maize production at world level. In Malawi maize production has always been associated with several challenges such as expensiveness of improved seed, climate change, unproductive soils and variations in variety preferences. Assessments on maize production has concentrated on short-term (1–5 years) and rarely consider farmer perceptions. This has caused mixed reactions on the dynamics of maize production. In this study, maize production, area and yield dynamics were assessed based on production data from 2004/05–2018/19 and farmer perceptions using Focus Group Discussions (FGD) in Salima, Central Malawi. A total of 2,400 households (36,000 in 15 years) were sampled each season to estimate the annual maize production dynamics for the district. The FGD was adequately represented by 15 farmers from all the geographical, social and maize production realms of the district. The maize production data was analysed in R Statistical Software Version 3.6.2 while that of FGD by Constructivism epistemology. The results showed that farmers used 17, six and two varieties for hybrid, Open-pollinated varieties (OPV) and local maize respectively. Farmers sourced hybrid and OPV maize seed from Private Agro dealers while local maize was own-sourced. Farmers preferred local maize for being cheap, good taste, low storage costs, and pest resistance although low yielding. They preferred hybrid and OPV maize for high yielding and early maturing despite demanding high storage costs, pest susceptibility, and low flour. From 2004/05–2018/19, the area under local and OPV maize reduced by 61% (21,619–8,331 ha) and 12% (12,913–11,309 ha) respectively, while that of hybrid maize increased by 49% (9,811–19,379 ha). A synthesis of the recent five years (2014/15–2018/19) showed a consistent decrease in area for hybrid and OPV and a significant increase of that of local maize. This may signal a catastrophic maize production in the region. Further elucidation for the next seven years (2019/20–2025/26), showed that the production of all maize was projected at 44,172 tons by 2025/26, representing a 1.6% increase from the base year 2019/20. This increase will be due to favorable climatic conditions and not increase in area or yield. If maize yield were improved by 30% in 2019/20, production would increase to 110,430 tons representing 67% of the food requirement in the study area. The current maize production trend in Salima does not guarantee food security prospects. Therefore, policymakers should consider reviewing the past interventions (input pricing, promotion strategies, sustainable practices, policies) in the maize subsector to enhance maize productivity.