Cargando…
A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic
We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The aim of this article was the description of a statistically robust methodology to extract quantitative values for the seasonal excesses...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8167797/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33915702 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/idr13020030 |
_version_ | 1783701765595594752 |
---|---|
author | Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Oliva, Alberto Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio |
author_facet | Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Oliva, Alberto Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio |
author_sort | Bonifazi, Gianluca |
collection | PubMed |
description | We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The aim of this article was the description of a statistically robust methodology to extract quantitative values for the seasonal excesses of deaths featured by the data, accompanying them with correct estimates of the relative uncertainties. We will describe the advantages of the method adopted with respect to others listed in literature. The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction of the baseline trend of casualties in Italy, with a surplus of mortality in correspondence to the flu epidemics in winter and to the hottest periods in summer. The overall quality of the fit to the data turns out to be very good, an indication of the validity of the chosen model. We discuss the trend of casualties in Italy by different classes of ages and for the different genders. We finally compare the data-subtracted casualties, as reported by ISTAT, with those reported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC) relative to the deaths directly attributed to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), and we point out the differences in the two samples, collected under different assumptions. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8167797 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-81677972021-06-02 A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Oliva, Alberto Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio Infect Dis Rep Article We analyze the data about casualties in Italy in the period 1 January 2015 to 30 September 2020 released by the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT). The aim of this article was the description of a statistically robust methodology to extract quantitative values for the seasonal excesses of deaths featured by the data, accompanying them with correct estimates of the relative uncertainties. We will describe the advantages of the method adopted with respect to others listed in literature. The data exhibit a clear sinusoidal behavior, whose fit allows for a robust subtraction of the baseline trend of casualties in Italy, with a surplus of mortality in correspondence to the flu epidemics in winter and to the hottest periods in summer. The overall quality of the fit to the data turns out to be very good, an indication of the validity of the chosen model. We discuss the trend of casualties in Italy by different classes of ages and for the different genders. We finally compare the data-subtracted casualties, as reported by ISTAT, with those reported by the Italian Department for Civil Protection (DPC) relative to the deaths directly attributed to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus (COVID-19), and we point out the differences in the two samples, collected under different assumptions. MDPI 2021-04-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8167797/ /pubmed/33915702 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/idr13020030 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) ). |
spellingShingle | Article Bonifazi, Gianluca Lista, Luca Menasce, Dario Mezzetto, Mauro Oliva, Alberto Pedrini, Daniele Spighi, Roberto Zoccoli, Antonio A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title | A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_full | A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_fullStr | A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_full_unstemmed | A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_short | A Statistical Analysis of Death Rates in Italy for the Years 2015–2020 and a Comparison with the Casualties Reported from the COVID-19 Pandemic |
title_sort | statistical analysis of death rates in italy for the years 2015–2020 and a comparison with the casualties reported from the covid-19 pandemic |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8167797/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33915702 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/idr13020030 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT bonifazigianluca astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT listaluca astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT menascedario astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT mezzettomauro astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT olivaalberto astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT pedrinidaniele astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT spighiroberto astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT zoccoliantonio astatisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT bonifazigianluca statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT listaluca statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT menascedario statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT mezzettomauro statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT olivaalberto statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT pedrinidaniele statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT spighiroberto statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic AT zoccoliantonio statisticalanalysisofdeathratesinitalyfortheyears20152020andacomparisonwiththecasualtiesreportedfromthecovid19pandemic |