Development of a classification system based on corneal biomechanical properties using artificial intelligence predicting keratoconus severity

BACKGROUND: To investigate machine-learning (ML) algorithms to differentiate corneal biomechanical properties between different topographical stages of keratoconus (KC) by dynamic Scheimpflug tonometry (CST, Corvis ST, Oculus, Wetzlar, Germany). In the following, ML models were used to predict the severity in a training and validation dataset. METHODS: Three hundred and eighteen keratoconic and one hundred sixteen healthy eyes were included in this monocentric and cross-sectional pilot study. Dynamic corneal response (DCR) and corneal thickness related (pachymetric) parameters from CST were chosen by appropriated selection techniques to develop a ML algorithm. The stage of KC was determined by the topographical keratoconus classification system (TKC, Pentacam, Oculus). Patients who were classified as TKC 1, TKC 2 and TKC 3 were assigned to subgroup mild, moderate, and advanced KC. If patients were classified as TKC 1–2, TKC 2–3 or TKC 3–4, they were assigned to subgroups according to the normative range of further corneal indices (index of surface variance, keratoconus index and minimum radius). Patients classified as TKC 4 were not included in this study due to the limited amount of cases. Linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and random forest (RF) algorithms were used to develop the classification models. Data were divided into training (70% of cases) and validation (30% of cases) datasets. RESULTS: LDA model predicted healthy, mild, moderate, and advanced KC eyes with a sensitivity (S(n))/specificity (S(p)) of 82%/97%, 73%/81%, 62%/83% and 68%/95% from a validation dataset, respectively. For the RF model, a S(n)/S(p) of 91%/94%, 80%/90%, 63%/87%, 72%/95% could be reached for predicting healthy, mild, moderate, and advanced KC eyes, respectively. The overall accuracy of LDA and RF was 71% and 78%, respectively. The accuracy for KC detection including all subgroups of KC severity was 93% in both models. CONCLUSION: The RF model showed good accuracy in predicting healthy eyes and various stages of KC. The accuracy was superior with respect to the LDA model. The clinical importance of the models is that the standalone dynamic Scheimpflug tonometry is able to predict the severity of KC without having the keratometric data. TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT04251143 at Clinicaltrials.gov, registered at 12 March 2018 (Retrospectively registered). SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40662-021-00244-4.