Plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA and risk of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in a prospective seropositive population

OBJECTIVE: Plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA is considered a biomarker for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, its long-term role in NPC development is unclear. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 1363 participants seropositive for EBV VCA-IgA and EBNA1-IgA in a community-based NPC screening program in southern China were tested for plasma EBV DNA levels by real-time qPCR between 2008 and 2015. New NPC cases were confirmed by active follow-up approach and linkage to local cancer registry through the end of 2016. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to calculate the hazard ratios (HRs) for NPC risk with plasma EBV DNA. RESULTS: Thirty patients were newly diagnosed during a median 7.5 years follow-up. NPC incidence increased with the plasma EBV DNA load ranging from 281.46 to 10,074.47 per 100,000 person-years in participants with undetectable and ≥ 1000 copies/ml levels; the corresponding cumulative incidence rates were 1.73 and 50%. Furthermore, plasma EBV DNA loads conferred an independent risk for NPC development after adjustment for other risk factors, with HRs of 7.63 for > 3–999 copies/ml and 39.79 for ≥1000 copies/ml. However, the HRs decreased gradually after excluding NPC cases detected in the first 2 to 3 years and became statistically nonsignificant by excluding cases detected during the first 4 years. CONCLUSION: Elevated plasma EBV DNA can predict NPC risk over 3 years. Monitoring plasma EBV DNA can be used as a complementary approach to EBV serological antibody-based screening for NPC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-021-08408-0.