Cargando…

The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States

This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to “bend the curve” during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which...

Descripción completa

Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Broughel, James, Kotrous, Michael
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8174714/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34081757
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252729
_version_ 1783702959311290368
author Broughel, James
Kotrous, Michael
author_facet Broughel, James
Kotrous, Michael
author_sort Broughel, James
collection PubMed
description This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to “bend the curve” during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits.
format Online
Article
Text
id pubmed-8174714
institution National Center for Biotechnology Information
language English
publishDate 2021
publisher Public Library of Science
record_format MEDLINE/PubMed
spelling pubmed-81747142021-06-14 The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States Broughel, James Kotrous, Michael PLoS One Research Article This paper estimates the benefits and costs of state suppression policies to “bend the curve” during the initial outbreak of COVID-19 in the United States. We employ an approach that values benefits and costs in terms of additions or subtractions to total production. Relative to a baseline in which only the infected and at-risk populations mitigate the spread of coronavirus, we estimate that total benefits of suppression policies to economic output are between $632.5 billion and $765.0 billion from early March 2020 to August 1, 2020. Relative to private mitigation, output lost due to suppression policies is estimated to be between $214.2 billion and $331.5 billion. The cost estimate is based on the duration of nonessential business closures and stay-at-home orders, which were enforced between 42 and 65 days. Our results indicate that the net benefits of suppression policies to slow the spread of COVID-19 are positive and may be substantial. We discuss uncertainty surrounding several parameters and employ alternative methods for valuing mortality benefits, which also suggest that suppression measures had positive net benefits. Public Library of Science 2021-06-03 /pmc/articles/PMC8174714/ /pubmed/34081757 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252729 Text en © 2021 Broughel, Kotrous https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Broughel, James
Kotrous, Michael
The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
title The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
title_full The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
title_fullStr The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
title_full_unstemmed The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
title_short The benefits of coronavirus suppression: A cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of COVID-19 in the United States
title_sort benefits of coronavirus suppression: a cost-benefit analysis of the response to the first wave of covid-19 in the united states
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8174714/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34081757
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252729
work_keys_str_mv AT brougheljames thebenefitsofcoronavirussuppressionacostbenefitanalysisoftheresponsetothefirstwaveofcovid19intheunitedstates
AT kotrousmichael thebenefitsofcoronavirussuppressionacostbenefitanalysisoftheresponsetothefirstwaveofcovid19intheunitedstates
AT brougheljames benefitsofcoronavirussuppressionacostbenefitanalysisoftheresponsetothefirstwaveofcovid19intheunitedstates
AT kotrousmichael benefitsofcoronavirussuppressionacostbenefitanalysisoftheresponsetothefirstwaveofcovid19intheunitedstates