Development of prediction model for osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture screening without using clinical risk factors, compared with FRAX and other previous models

SUMMARY: This study developed a prediction model to assess the need for asymptomatic osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) screening in women without using clinical risk factors. Our results demonstrated that the combination of age, height loss, and femoral neck T-score can predict OVCF comparable to previous models, including FRAX. PURPOSE: Osteoporotic vertebral compression fracture (OVCF) is a major fracture in osteoporosis patients. Early detection of OVCF can reduce the risk of subsequent fractures and death. Many existing diagnostic tools can screen for the risk of osteoporotic fracture but none aim to identify OVCF. The objective of this research is to study a predictive model for capturing OVCF and compare it with previous models. METHODS: A retrospective review was conducted that included women aged ≥ 50 years who underwent dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry and vertebral fracture screening between 2012 and 2019. The data included age, height, weight, history of height loss (HHL), and bone mass density (BMD). Receiver operating characteristic analysis and univariate and multivariate logistic regression were performed. The predictive OVCF model was formulated, and the result was compared to other models. RESULTS: A total of 617 women, a 179 of which had OVCFs, were eligible for analysis. Multivariate regression analysis showed age > 65, height loss > 1.5 cm, and femoral neck T-score < -1.7 as independent risk factors for OVCF. This model revealed comparable performance with FRAX. The model without BMD revealed superior performance to FRAX and other standard osteoporosis assessment models. CONCLUSIONS: BMD and vertebral fracture screening should be eligible for individual women age > 65 years with an HHL more than 1.5 cm, regardless of BMD. Vertebral fracture assessment should be additionally conducted on these women with a femoral neck T-score less than -1.7.