COVID-19 outbreak in India: an SEIR model-based analysis

We present a modelling and analysis of the COVID-19 outbreak in India with an emphasis on the socio-economic composition, based on the progress of the pandemic (during its first phase—from March to August 2020) in 11 federal states where the outbreak is the largest in terms of the total number of infectives. Our model is based on the susceptible-exposed-infectives-removed (SEIR) model, including an asymptomatic transmission rate, time-dependent incubation period and time-dependent transmission rate. We carry out the analysis with the available disease data up to the end of August 2020, with a projection of 42 days into the months of September and October 2020, based on the past data. Overall, we have presented a projection up to 351 days (till February 2021) for India and we have found that our model is able to predict correctly the first phase of the pandemic in India with correct projections of the peak of the pandemic as well as daily new infections. We also find the existence of a critical day, signifying a sudden shift in the transmission pattern of the disease, with interesting relation of the behaviour of the pandemic with demographic and socio-economic parameters. Towards the end, we have modelled the available data with the help of logistic equations and compare this with our model. The results of this work can be used as a future guide to follow in case of similar pandemics in developing countries.