Data-Driven Forecasting of Agitation for Persons with Dementia: A Deep Learning-Based Approach

The World Health Organization estimates that approximately 10 million people are newly diagnosed with dementia each year and a global prevalence of nearly 50 million persons with dementia (PwD). The vast majority of PwD living at home receive the majority of their care from informal familial caregivers. The quality of life (QOL) of familial caregivers may be significantly impacted by their caregiving responsibilities and resultant caregiver burden. A major contributor to caregiver burden is the random occurrence of agitation in PwD and familial caregivers’ lack of preparedness to manage these episodes. Caregiver burden may be reduced if it is possible to forecast impending agitation episodes. In this study, we leverage data-driven deep learning models to predict agitation episodes in PwD. We used Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), a deep learning class of algorithms, to forecast agitations up to 30 min before actual agitation events. In particular, we managed the missing data by estimating the missing values and compensated for the class imbalance challenge by down-sampling the majority class. The simulations were based on real-world data from Alzheimer’s disease (AD) caregivers and PwD dyads home environments, including ambient noise level, illumination, room temperature, atmospheric pressure (Pa), and relative humidity. Our results show the efficacy of data-driven deep learning models in predicting agitation episodes in community-dwelling AD dyads with accuracy of 98.6% and recall (sensitivity) of 84.8%.