Analysis on the trend of AIDS incidence in Zhejiang, China based on the age-period-cohort model (2004–2018)

OBJECTIVE: To predict the trend of AIDS in specific age groups and to determine the objective population for AIDS screening, this study explored the three transmission routes and characterized each patient group using the APC model based on the whole, local, and immigrant populations in Zhejiang, China. METHODS: The data recruited in this paper was obtained from the national Comprehensive AIDS Prevention and Control Information System - Antiviral Therapy Management database and the Chinese Disease Prevention and Control Information System and the Statistical Yearbook of Zhejiang, China. An APC model was used to estimate the impact of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of AIDS, as well as to predict the AIDS incidence in specific age groups based on different sexes with different transmission routes. RESULTS: The AIDS incidence peaked in males aged 20–35 years; the incidence of males was higher than that of females due to the impact of period; obvious cohort effect was observed among the immigrants. In the whole and local populations, the incidences of males in all age groups and females in both the 35-year-old group and the whole age group were predicted to increase sharply in 5 years. In the immigrant population, the AIDS incidences in both sexes in all age groups were expected to increase significantly in 5 years. Under the influence of period, the incidence of AIDS via homosexual transmission in the whole population and the local population increased and remained stable after 2015. At the same time, the incidence of AIDS transmitted by homosexual and heterosexual routes in the immigrants also showed an increasing trend. CONCLUSIONS: The results elucidate that there are sex differences in AIDS incidence, and the incidence of AIDS through various transmission routes in all groups is predicted to exhibit an upward trend in the 5 years to come. Effective intervention strategies should be developed and implemented by the public health departments in Zhejiang to control the epidemic of AIDS. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11050-x.