An ultrasound-derived stroke risk score to identify patients at high risk of stroke

BACKGROUND: To develop an ultrasound-derived stroke risk (USR) score combining plaque stiffness, surface morphology and lumen narrowing to evaluate the risk of stroke in patients with asymptotic carotid stenosis. METHODS: We developed the USR score in a prospective study of symptomatic and asymptomatic patients with ipsilateral carotid lumen narrowing. Multivariable analysis was performed to identify parameters associated with ischemic events, and a USR score was constructed based on the observed β coefficient. The discrimination performance of the USR score was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Twenty iterations of 5-fold cross-validation were used for internal validation. RESULTS: We derived the USR score (range, 0–7) by incorporating plaque stiffness (≥80 kPa, 0 points; 60–79 kPa, 1 point; 40–59 kPa, 2 points; <40 kPa, 3 points), plaque surface (smooth, 0 points; irregular, 1 point; ulcer, 2 points) and carotid stenosis (<50%, 0 points; 50–69%, 1 point; ≥70%, 2 points). After adjusting for age and sex, the odds ratio (OR) for every 1-point increase in the USR score increase was 3.3 (P<0.001). The risk of ischemic events increased with increasing USR score (P for trend <0.001). The C statistic of the USR score was 0.84 in the derivation sample and 0.82 in the validation sample. CONCLUSIONS: The USR score to assess the risk of ischemic events in patients with carotid stenosis showed preferable discrimination ability and robustness. While external validation is warranted to prove the predictive value, this risk score could help accelerate triage decisions in similar patient populations.