Cumulative damage effect of jaundice may be an effective predictor of complications in patients undergoing radical resection of Bismuth type II or above hilar cholangiocarcinoma

BACKGROUND: There is currently no preoperative risk assessment system for predicting complications after radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma. This study examined the association between the cumulative damage effect of jaundice (CDEJ) and the complications of radical resection of Bismuth II or above hilar cholangiocarcinoma. METHODS: Patients who underwent radical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma at the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, West China Hospital of Sichuan University, from April 2010 to January 2018 were retrospectively included. RESULTS: Of the 171 included patients, 115 (67.3%) patients experienced complications. Multivariate analysis found that CDEJ [odds ratio (OR) =1.0001, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) =1.000027–1.000239, P=0.014], cholangitis (OR =9.638, 95% CI =2.683–34.622, P=0.001), and preoperative bilirubin (OR =1.006, 95% CI =1.002–1.01, P=0.004) were independently associated with the incidence of complications. CDEJ (OR =1.0001, 95% CI =1.00001–1.00019, P=0.024), age (OR =1.083, 95% CI =1.029–1.14, P=0.002), preoperative bilirubin (OR =1.083, 95% CI =1.029–1.14, P=0.002), and future liver remnant (FLR) (OR =0.963, 95% CI =0.941–0.986, P=0.002) were independently associated with hepatic failure. To predict the incidence of complications, the following criteria were used. For the CDEJ cutoff of 2,151, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.69 (95% CI =0.615–0.759), the sensitivity was 66.09%, and the specificity was 69.64%. For the preoperative bilirubin cutoff of 111.7 µmol/L, the AUC was 0.65 (95% CI =0.573–0.721), the sensitivity was 84.35%, and the specificity was 42.86%. To predict hepatic failure, the following criteria were used. For the CDEJ cutoff of 3,931.95, the AUC was 0.605 (95% CI =0.582–0.679), the sensitivity was 51.28%, and the specificity was 70.45%. For the preoperative bilirubin cutoff of 115.9 µmol/L, the AUC was 0.638 (95% CI =0.561–0.71), the sensitivity was 92.31%, and the specificity was 32.58%. For the FLR cutoff of 50, the AUC was 0.638 (95% CI =0.515–0.667), the sensitivity was 48.72%, and the specificity was 78.79%. CONCLUSIONS: CDEJ was independently associated with complications and can moderately predict complications after surgical resection of hilar cholangiocarcinoma.