On-treatment immune prognostic score for patients with relapsed and/or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma treated with immunotherapy

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have suggested that inflammatory markers (neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and fibrinogen) are prognostic biomarkers in patients with a variety of solid cancers, including those treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs). We aimed to develop a model that predicts response and survival in patients with relapsed and/or metastatic (R/M) head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) treated with immunotherapy. METHODS: Analysis of 100 consecutive patients with unresectable R/M HNSCC who were treated with ICI. Baseline and on-treatment (day 28) NLR, fibrinogen and LDH were calculated and correlated with response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) using univariate and multivariate analyses. The optimal cut-off values were derived using maximally selected log-rank statistics. RESULTS: Low baseline NLR and fibrinogen levels were associated with response. There was a statistically significant correlation between on-treatment NLR and fibrinogen and best overall response. On-treatment high NLR and raised fibrinogen were significantly associated with poorer outcome. In multivariate analysis, on-treatment NLR (≥4) and on-treatment fibrinogen (≥4 ng/mL) showed a significant negative correlation with OS and PFS. Using these cut-off points, we generated an on-treatment score for OS and PFS (0–2 points). The derived scoring system shows appropriate discrimination and suitability for OS (HR 2.4, 95% CI 1.7 to 3.4, p<0.0001, Harrell’s C 0.67) and PFS (HR 1.8, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.3, p<0.0001, Harrell’s C 0.68). In the absence of an external validation cohort, results of fivefold cross-validation of the score and evaluation of median OS and PFS on the Kaplan-Meier survival distribution between trained and test data exhibited appropriate accuracy and concordance of the model. CONCLUSIONS: NLR and fibrinogen levels are simple, inexpensive and readily available biomarkers that could be incorporated into an on-treatment scoring system and used to help predict survival and response to ICI in patients with R/M HNSCC.