Association between baseline and changes in serum uric acid and incident metabolic syndrome: a nation-wide cohort study and updated meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: To prospectively examine the associations of baseline serum uric acid (SUA) and SUA changes with incident metabolic syndrome (MetS) and update the evidence through a meta-analysis. METHODS: Our analyses were based on the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study from 2011–2012 to 2015–2016. The exposures were baseline SUA and SUA changes, and the outcome was incident MetS assessed in 2015–2016. Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). A meta-analysis was conducted to synthesize evidence from all cohort studies on the same topic. RESULTS: Of 3779 participants (47.2% men; mean age: 59.5 years) without MetS, 452 participants developed MetS after a follow-up of 4 years. Compared to the lowest quartiles, the adjusted ORs (95% CIs) for MetS were 1.08 (0.77–1.50), 1.32 (0.95–1.82), and 1.55 (1.12–2.16) for three higher quartiles of baseline SUA, and 1.23 (0.89–1.71), 1.39 (1.00–1.93), and 1.89 (1.38–2.58) for three higher quartiles of SUA changes. Each increment of 1 mg/dL of baseline SUA level was associated with 19% higher odds of MetS (adjusted OR 1.19; 95% CI 1.07–1.33). In the meta-analysis of 24 cohort studies among 140,913 participants, the pooled relative risk (95% CI) was 1.32 (1.25–1.40) for the highest versus lowest SUA category, and 1.15 (1.09–1.21) for each 1 mg/dL increase in the SUA level. CONCLUSIONS: Both baseline SUA and longitudinal SUA changes were positively associated with risk of MetS among middle-aged and elderly Chinese, which was supported by findings from a comprehensive meta-analysis across multiple populations. SUA levels might need to be monitored closely for subsequent risk of MetS in clinical practice. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12986-021-00584-x.