Systemic Treatment Initiation in Classical and Endemic Kaposi’s Sarcoma: Risk Factors and Global Multi-State Modelling in a Monocentric Cohort Study

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Over the past decades, clinical features and patients’ outcome of iatrogenic and HIV-related KS epidemiological subtypes have been widely described in large cohort series. Due to their lower incidence and the limited resources available in endemic KS countries, classical and endemic KS epidemiological studies remain scarce, thus increasing the challenge of such clinically heterogeneous chronic diseases’ management. In this large retrospective cohort study, six risk factors for treatment initiation were identified: time between first symptoms and diagnosis ≥1 year, endemic KS, total number of lesions ≥10, visceral or head/neck localization and edema. No response or treatment-free time difference was observed between the most frequently used therapeutic options: chemotherapy and interferon-alpha. Assessment for systemic treatment risk factors provides guidance for adequate follow-up and patients’ information on disease outcome. Absence of efficacy difference between systemic regimens allows treatment choice based on fitness. ABSTRACT: Background: Although several studies described the clinical course of epidemic and post-transplant Kaposi’s Sarcoma (KS), the lack of large cohorts of classic/endemic KS, precluded such characterization. Methods: We used multi-state modelling in a retrospective monocentric study to evaluate global disease evolution and identify risk factors for systemic treatment (ST) initiation. 160 classic/endemic KS patients consecutively diagnosed between 1990 and 2013 were included. Results: 41.2% of classic/endemic KS patients required ST. Cumulative incidence of ST after 2 years of follow-up was 28.4% [95% CI: 20.5; 35.5]. Multivariate analysis identified six risk factors for ST initiation: time between first symptoms and diagnosis ≥1 year, endemic KS, total number of lesions ≥10, visceral, head or neck localization and presence of edema. Type of ST, type of KS, age and time between diagnosis and ST were not associated with response. Mean treatment-free time during the first 5 years following ST was 44 months for interferon and 44.6 months for chemotherapy treated patients (Mean difference: −0.5 months [95% CI: −9.5; 4.9]). Conclusions: Our study reveals ST risk factors in classic/endemic KS and highlights the clinical aggressiveness of the endemic KS subtype. No efficacy difference was observed between standard of care treatments, enabling treatment choice based on patient’s fitness.